Let’s start with some highlights of the Prime Minister’s video conference today with Chief Ministers on plans for the lockdown. Home Minister Amit Shah, who has kept an uncharacteristically low profile during both phases of lockdown, was present today to wag his finger and issue a stern warning to the states on lockdown violations. Also, Narendra Modi’s trusty “gamcha” or scarf was visible during his video conference, the fourth such consult between the PM and state leaders since the Coronavirus outbreak overcame the country.
The meeting lasted for three hours and the answer to the billion dollar question for the Indian economy – will the most draconian lockdown in the world be lifted – is still not clear. Chary of uncontrollable community spread of the infectious pandemic, the centre and the states are proceeding with huge caution.
So, what we do know after today’s meeting? Areas designated “Hot Spots and Red Zones” will remain shut after May 3 as part of Lockdown 3.0 when the nationwide restrictions will end. Masks will be mandatory across the country for anyone going out. Trains and air travel are still out of the question and any exit from lockdown will be “graded” with an inbuilt brake. Schools and colleges will remain closed; there will be no public transport made available for a while.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi at today’s video meeting with Chief Ministers
Several Chief Ministers including Naveen Patnaik of Odisha actually recommended a month-long extension. The state leaders also asked the centre to release funds due to them (for example, their share of GST) and ensure the supply of protective equipment and testing kits.
All the leaders present expressed concern about the economy and migrant labourers stuck in various parts of India. Modi repeated his truism “Jaan Hai toh Jahan Hai” (life is more important than worldly issues) and, in the presence of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, said that the economy is solid, no need to worry about it.
Kerala’s Pinarayi Vijayan sent his Chief Secretary Tom Jose to fill in for him at the meeting whereas Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal was present despite her hostilities with the centre.
Ensuring every leader gets a chance by rota to express their position, this time, it was mainly Chief Ministers from the North-East who spoke today; others were told to send their suggestions in writing.
No sign or discussion of a much-needed stimulus package for the economy and for corporates.
Five of nine Chief Ministers at the meeting said the lockdown should end, while the rest were in favour of extending it
Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari has already done an economy outreach with most of the Chief Ministers present today. Uddhav Thackeray of Maharashtra, yesterday, in a savvy, politically-loaded move praised Gadkari as helpful and not playing politics during a pandemic.
For all its assurances, the Modi government’s worry about the economy and the financial consequences of the lockdown is apparent as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this morning announced a booster shot of 50,000 cores for mutual funds as a reaction to Franklin Templeton freezing six credit funds worth about $4 billion late last week.
Modi also did a significant reshuffle of 23 senior officials yesterday, virtually sending all his most trusted officials from the Prime Minister’s Office to economic ministries so that the PMO can continue to monitor the economy in real time. The most significant transfers were Tarun Bajaj and A K Sharma from the PMO. Bajaj has been made Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs. Sharma, a Gujarat-cadre IAS official who has been working with Modi since his long tenure as Chief Minister of Gujarat, is now Secretary, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises.
The last details of the stimulus package for the economy have now been worked out and it will be announced later this week. So expect another Modi video message to the nation announcing a less draconian lockdown, somewhat sweetened by a stimulus package and ensuring that migrant workers make it back home.
