The trend, as illustrated in nation-wide statistics, is clear — most large states in terms of population are struggling with a jump in active cases. India has seen over 2,000 diagnoses on an average per day over the past three days
New Delhi, May 6:
With India in the third phase of its national lockdown, an analysis of available data shows an alarming gap between new cases and recoveries from Covid-19.
The trend, as illustrated in nation-wide statistics, is clear — most large states in terms of population are struggling with a jump in active cases. India has seen over 2,000 diagnoses on an average per day over the past three days.
RECOVERIES VS. NEW CASES
And around 63 per cent of all confirmed cases in the country so far have been detected in the last 15 days.
The overall recovery percentage, on the other hand, stands at around 28 per cent, available data shows. This gap will most likely impact the health systems directly across states. Health parameters and indicators vary from state to state, depending on their health infrastructure.
On April 23, policymakers came out with a prediction about the daily number of Covid-19 cases in India.Their analysis projected the numbers to fall from April 26 and reach zero levels by mid-May.
THE RECOVERY TIME
But that’s not happening, as trends indicate.
The daily recovery rate of around 30 per cent has been severely impacted by a steep hike in the number of new cases.
According to available data, the range of percentage positives over the last 15 days has shuttled between 3.82 to 4.41 per cent, which underscores the need for expanding testing to prevent widespread infections.
The hike in the number of cases over the last 15 days will directly impact the recovery ratio as it will have a bearing on doctors, other medical staff and health infrastructure owing to shift of focus from existing patients to new patients.
It may lead to longer recovery periods for the existing cases.
*Data considered here is obtained from official state bulletins and from ICMR/MOHW for the period April 20-May 4.
Now we will look at the data that shows the count of new cases and recoveries on a daily basis for the last 15 days in the top 11 states of India based on the total number of cases.
The charts also look at the recovery percentage in the last 15 days compared to the overall numbers.
PUNJAB, WEST BENGAL REPORT SLOWEST RECOVERIES
West Bengal and Punjab rank among the worst-performing states because of their abysmally low recoveries. The two states have also started seeing a high number of new cases over the past 15 days.
Punjab and West Bengal have had very little recoveries even whilst having low confirmed cases until April 19.
From April 20, their new case count has drastically increased.
TELANGANA RANKS HIGH ON RECOVERY CHART
Telangana, on the other hand, has shown a high recovery percentage and the lowest hike in daily cases out of the 11 states.
On multiple occasions, Telangana recorded a higher number of recoveries than the number of new cases on a day-to-day basis over the past two weeks.
Indicators like these will directly impact medical infrastructure of states.
What they also tell you is that those who have recovered in the last 15 days are possibly patients who’ve been hospitalised since March. These patients have taken around a month to recover.
This emphasises the need for the states to ramp up efforts to treat Covid-19 patients.
CONTACT TRACING
The easing of restrictions also complicates contact-tracing measures.
Let’s take a look at how many new cases states have seen in the last 15 days. Barring Telangana, every other state has identified 50 per cent or more of their total cases just in the last 15 days.
States like Punjab, Maharashtra, and Gujarat have identified around 70-80 per cent of their total cases in the past two weeks.
New clusters being identified in smaller districts of various states are also a cause for concern.
For example, the #KoyambeduMarket cluster in Chennai has now spread to districts like Cuddalore
New cases are only identifiable owing to the expansion of testing coverage in tier-2 and tier 3 cities.
LOCKDOWN EXIT
The biggest worry now for officials and medical staff in India is the relaxing of lockdown norms across states and districts which are not in the red zone.
But going by pure logic and math, the number of new cases may double in the days to come.
That gives another reason for the ICMR to consider re-employing rapid-testing mechanisms, if possible, by procuring RAT kits from trustworthy dealers in South Korea, which have had the highest percentage of accuracy.
The number of tests conducted per day also needs to double in order to ensure that the easing of lockdowns does not result in a second wave, which could be stronger.
The best solution would be to relax some restrictions in sectors that warrant on-site availability of employees, like manufacturing, local transport, and goods and services industries.
Other sectors like education and technology, which can afford to work remotely, should still continue to work that way.
Courtesy: India Today
